Will Elon Musk prove Aesop wrong? One of the classics is that the hare, with quickness, looks like the winner before a race with the slow tortoise. As the fable concludes, we learn that a slow and steady strategy can win the race for the tortoise.
Many have suggested this is the case in the transformative move to electric vehicles (EVs). Yes Tesla and its CEO got out of the blocks fast and pushed EVs worldwide, but legacy carmakers saw the writing on the wall. One line of thinking is that, while starting from behind, those legacy carmakers will overtake the newcomer, Tesla.
(Credit: Tesla)
ANALYST SAYS TESLA WINS
That is not the way the race will go, according to Morgan Stanley. The equity analyst team headed by Adam Jonas just released a research note in which they suggest Tesla, the hare, will win the race. The group estimates Tesla will own 10% of the car market by 2025. Five years later the researchers predict Musk’s company will hit nearly a quarter of car sales, owning 23% of the market. Extraordinary.
How Morgan Stanley sees Tesla overtaking GM in volume and dollars. (Credit: Morgan Stanley)
All those gains would come at the expense of the century-old names in American automaking. The Morgan Stanley (MS) folks call them “share donors.” MS predicts GM will donate 2.5%, falling to just 12% of the market by 2030. Ford will give up the same amount and end up at 10% by the end of the decade.
DOMINATION
The MS team says that means Tesla will have more market share than Ford and GM combined. I asked GM about the prediction. The Detroit-based automaker does not comment on analyst predictions.
Ford and GM have more EV models coming in the next two years. Ford has found success with its Mach E, as GM works through a battery recall with its Bolt EV. The other carmaker in the market already is Volkswagen. You may have seen one of its ID.4 EVs on the road.
THE VW ID.4
When the snow hit last month in the east, I was given an ID.4 for the week to give it a spin. The one thing that has struck me about this new generation of EVs is how different they are from the first generation, and hybrids. These cars get up and go. The ID-4 doesn't match the Mach E in a lot of categories, including price.
VW says the ID.4 base model has 200 horsepower. The all-wheel-drive Pro S model I had, with its two motors, can put out 295 horsepower. The range is a bit less than the Ford, but acceptable. At an 80% charge I had a range of 168 miles. VW says the Pro S has a range of 240 miles on a full charge. I never took it to 100%. I did take it over to a buddy's house. Dave owns three VW's and he seemed to really like this first VW EV version in the states.
(Credit: VW)
I found the interface screen to be a bit less informative than I expected. But the cabin was comfortable and well appointed (the heated seats were nice in snowy conditions). VW has built the ID.4 on what it calls its MEB platform (modular electric drive matrix) which will be replaced in a couple years with a new platform. VW currently uses MEB for a number of models. The German company is selling a smaller ID.3 in Europe but currently has no plans to bring that vehicle to the US.
VW artist rendering of the MEB platform. (Credit: VW)
STYLING
For a company that has produced some iconic auto shapes, think the Beetle, the GTI, and the VW Bus, I found the styling uninspiring. The ID.4 doesn’t look bad. It just looks like many other small SUV/Crossover vehicles.
Rally version of the VW ID.4. (Credit: VW)
The base model sells for just less than $41,000. The all-wheel-drive Pro S goes for a bit more than $45,000. It’s a decent EV start in the US for VW. You just might not be able to pick it out from a crowd of crossovers.
(Cover photo credit: Tesla)
